Managing Global Financial Risk Using Currency Futures And Currency Options(pdf)
Managing Global Financial Risk
Using Currency Futures
and Currency Options
Second BGSU International Management Conference
Global Risk Management
Hyatt Regency, Cleveland, OH
17-18 April 2002
Managing Global Financial Risk
Using Currency Futures
and Currency Options
Sung C. Bae
Ashel G. Bryan/Mid American Bank Professor
Department of Finance
Bowling Green State University
Corporate Risk Management
Corporate Risk Financial Derivatives
Commodity Risk Commodity Price Derivatives
· Risk associated with movement in · Ex-traded commodity futures
commodity prices · Ex-traded commodity options
· Operational risk · Commodity swaps
Interest Rate Risk Interest Rate Derivatives
· Risk associated with movement in · Forward rate agreements
interest rates · Ex-traded interest rate futures
· Financing and Investment risk · Ex-traded interest rate options
· Interest rate swaps
· Over-the-counter (OTC) options
Foreign Exchange Risk Foreign Exchange Derivatives
· Risk associated with movement in · Forward currency contracts
foreign exchange (currency) rates · Ex-traded currency futures
· Operational, financing, & investment · Ex-traded currency options
risk · OTC options
· Currency swaps
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What Derivatives
U.S. Corporations Use?
BI Greenwich II Treasury JKF
1989 1992 1992 1993 1995
Foreign Ex. Derivatives
Forward contracts 99% 91% 64% 70% 93%
Ex-traded futures/options 20 --- 11 9 20/17
Currency swaps 64 51 --- 6 53
OTC options 48 45 40 53 49
Interest Rate Derivatives
Forward rate agreements (FRAs) 35 11 --- ---
Ex-traded futures/options 25 12 29 17
Interest rate swaps 68 35 79 83
OTC Options (caps, etc.) 43 19 14 16
Commodity Price Deriv.
Ex-traded futures/options 7 --- ---
Commodity swaps 6 15 10
Equity Derivatives
Ex-traded futures/options 10 3
Equity swaps 5 6
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Hedging w/ Currency Futures
Cash Market Futures Market
Position Position
Now Short Long => BUY
Later Long => BUY Short => SELL
Net Position Profit/Loss Loss/Profit
Now Long Short => SELL
Later Short => SELL Long => BUY
Net position Profit/Loss Loss/Profit
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Case Study: Using Forward Prices to
Reduce Capital Costs (1/5)
Hewlett Packard (HP)
Company:
Type: Multinational corporation
Major Products: computer, computer system,
printer, electronic & analytical instruments
Employees: 96,200
Annual Sales: $28,000,000 from 65 countries
Sales distribution: US (50.1%), Europe (28.7%),
Asia, Canada, and Latin America (21.2%)
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Case Study: Using Forward Prices to
Reduce Capital Costs (2/5)
HP Microwave Leybold
Technology Division Technologies Co.
Buys from a German
company and has to
pay in DM.
Sell a thin film
deposition system
Quoted Prices in Purchasing Contract:
•German DM: DM1,314,720 in four installments; fixed price
•U.S. $: $792,000 (rate = DM1.660/$); varies based on rate on
payment date.
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Case Study: Using Forward Prices to
Reduce Capital Costs (3/5)
Sales and Capital Budget of Microwave Technology Division, HP
1990 1992
Annual Sales $15,000,000 $23,000,000
Capital Budget $10,000,000 $22,000,000
(equipment only) ($2,500,000) ($7,500,000)
Foreign Sources of Equipment Purchases by MT Division
Country Amount Percentage (%)
Japan $4,500,000 60.0
Germany 1,200,000 16.0
Austria 1,000,000 13.3
England 800,000 10.7
Total $7,500,000 100.0%
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Case Study: Using Forward Prices to
Reduce Capital Costs (4/5)
Payment Schedule:
7/90 9/90 12/90 3/91 5/91
0 2 month 5 month 8 month 10 month
DM 262,944 262,944 591,624 197,208
(20%) (20%) (45%) (15%)
Hedging Through Forward Contracts:
Payment rate DM1.66/$
Payment in $ 158,400 158,400 356,400 118,800
Total: $792,000
Actual rate 1.5701 1.4982 1.6122 1.7199
$ Equivalent 167,470 175,507 366,967 114,663
Total: $825,407
Profit (loss) $9,070 $17,107 $10,567 ($4,137)
Net Profit = $32,607; 4.1% of total purchase amount
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Case Study: Using Forward Prices to
Reduce Capital Costs (5/5)
Strategy/Action:
Examining the forward rates of DM against US dollar
over the future payment dates, HP concluded that DM
would strengthen against US dollar over this period.
Based on this expectation, HP made forward contracts
with its bank to purchase DM at the rate of
DM1.660/$ (the rate available on May 1990) on
payment dates. By doing this, HP:
• Was able to maintain the desired dollar cost
regardless of the dollar/DM movement;.
• Was able to eliminate currency risk for the Germany
supplier.
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Currency Futures versus
Currency Options
Currency Futures Currency Options
Obligation to buy/sell FC Right to buy/sell FC
No premium payable Premium payable
Only one forward rate for Wide range of strike prices
a particular delivery date
Fixed delivery date of Flexible delivery date (can
currency buy longer-maturity one)
Eliminates upside Unlimited profit potential
potential & downside & limited downside risk
risk
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Hedging w/ Currency Options
Future FC When Short When Long
Position Position in FC is Position in FC is
Expected Expected
Future FC FC to be paid at FC to be received
Flow future date at future date
Type of Firm Importer of raw Exporter of
materials finished goods
Purpose of To limit loss from To limit loss from
Hedging possible FC possible FC
Hedging Buy Call Option Buy Put Option
Strategy
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Usefulness of Currency Options
Currency options are especially useful
when:
FC cash flows are contingent that cannot be
hedged with forward contracts.
Ø Example) acceptance of a bid
The quantity of FC to be received or paid out
is uncertain.
Ø Uncertain FC accounts receivables
Ø Uncertain FC accounts payables
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General Rules
General Rules on Using
Currency Options versus Currency Futures
When the quantity of FC cash outflow is known,
buy currency forward; when unknown, buy a
currency call option.
When the quantity of a FC cash inflow is known,
sell currency forward; when unknown, buy a
currency put option.
When quantity of a FC cash flow is partially known
and partially uncertain, use a forward to hedge the
known portion and a currency option to hedge the
maximum value of the uncertain remainder.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options to
Hedge FX Risk of Uncertain Payables (1/3)
Cadbury Schweppes (CS)
Company:
Type: British multinational corporation
Major Products: soft drink (55%) and candy (45%)
Employees: 39,066
Annual Sales: $5,730,000,000
Operations: Markets in more than 170 countries -
Britain (43%); Erope (20%); North America
(17%); Asia (14%).
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Case Study: Using Currency Options to
Hedge FX Risk of Uncertain Payables (2/3)
Situation:
The price of CS’s key product input, cocoa, is quoted
in sterling, but is really a dollar-based product.
=> As the value of the dollar changes, the sterling
price of cocoa changes as well.
The objective of CS’s foreign exchange strategy is to
eliminate the currency element in the decision to
purchase the commodity, thus leaving the company’s
purchasing managers able to concentrate on
fundamentals.
This task is complicated by the fact that the
company’s projections of its future purchases is highly
uncertain.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options to
Hedge FX Risk of Uncertain Payables (3/3)
Strategy/Action:
CS has turned to currency options.
After netting its total exposure, the company
covers with forward contracts base amount of
exposed, known payables.
It covers the remaining, uncertain, portion with
dollar-put-options up to its maximum amounts.
In this strategy, the put options act as an
insurance policy.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options as a
Competitive Tool (1/7)
Allied Signal, Inc. (AS)
Company:
Type: N.J.-based U.S. multinational corporation
Major Products: aerospace (38%), automotive
(38%), engineered materials (24%).
Employees: 86,400
Annual Sales: $11,827,000,000
Operations: U.S. (78%); Europe (16%); Canada
(2%).
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Case Study: Using Currency Options as a
Competitive Tool (2/7)
Situation:
Was submitting an overseas bid to sell scientific equipment
to a Scandinavian firm for $20 million.
Payments to be made in unequal disbursements at six
irregularly spaced dates over two years.
The principal competitor was a French firm.
Had superior technology and lower cost, but was concerned
about presenting a bid denominated only in U.S. dollars,
since the French firm’s bid was in Norwegian kroner.
Hence, AS was confronted with:
(1) a high degree of uncertainty about success of the bid,
(2) a need to establish costs and revenues in local currency.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options as a
Competitive Tool (3/7)
Strategy/Action:
AS bought from its bank a multiple option facility:
a two-year American-style call option on the dollar,
with puts against each of the four non-dollar
currencies--deutsche marks, French francs, Finnish
markka, or Norwegian kroner.
=> Through this option contract, the Scandinavian
customer could choose its preferred currency of
payment on each successive payment date.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options as a
Competitive Tool (4/7)
Strategy/Action:
The strike prices for the options were set at the spot
levels when the deal was struck (1.7 deutsche
marks, 5.7 French francs, 6.5 Finnish markka, and
4.0 Norwegian kroner).
=> These strike levels give the Scandinavian
customer a ceiling on the amount of foreign
currency it will have to pay at any time, while
guaranteeing that the U.S. firm will always receive
the full dollar price.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options as a
Competitive Tool (5/7)
Strategy/Outcome:
On the first payment date of $2.5 million, there would
be two scenarios:
Scenario I: The dollar had weakened so that spot
rates on the payment date were below the strike
prices for the non-dollar currencies:
The customer decided to make the first payment
in DM at a prevailing market rate of DM1.5/$.
The customer pays DM3.75 million to AS,
which, in turn, sells the DM in the spot market
and pockets $2.5 million.
AS does not need to exercise its put option.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options as a
Competitive Tool (6/7)
Strategy/Outcome:
Scenario II: Instead, the dollar had
strengthened to, say, DM 2.0/$.
At the spot rate, the customer would have
paid DM 5 million to cover its obligation.
With the option in place, however, the
customer pays only the ceiling amount of
DM 4.25 million.
AS, in turn, exercises its put option at the
strike price of DM 1.7/dollar to get full
$2.5 million.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options as a
Competitive Tool (7/7)
Strategy/Outcome:
The total cost to AS was about $400,000, which was passed
on to the customer in the total purchase price.
The strike levels represent the worst-case scenarios for the
customer, the maximum amount in any particular currency.
=> gives the customer the ability to compare these worst-
case scenarios with the terms of other competing offers
denominated in the same foreign currency.
By offering its customer five different currencies in which
to pay, AS gave the customer the opportunity to reduce its
costs by paying a lower price if one currency depreciated
relative to the Norwegian kroner. => An edge over the
French firm that allowed payment in only one currency.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options to
Manage Double-Faced FX Risk (1/7)
Pan-Asian Electronics (PAE)
Company:
Type: Singapore-based computer manufacturer
Major Products: notebook computer
Annual Sales: $240,000,000
($20 million/month)
Operations: Exports mainly to U.S.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options to
Manage Double-Faced FX Risk (2/7)
Situation:
PAE uses advanced components imported from
Japan to manufacture computers sold in the U.S.
market.
Hence, like other numerous Southeast Asian
companies which rely on Japanese producers and
American consumers, PAE holds dollar assets and
yen obligations.
At the beginning of January, 1995, the US dollar
was about to resume its prolonged depreciation
against the yen; on January 2, the dollar/yen spot
rate stood at 100.15.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options to
Manage Double-Faced FX Risk (3/7)
Strategy/Action:
To set up a dollar/yen hedge that would ensure
PAE’s ability to make affordable purchases should
the dollar collapse, PAE bought a dozen at-the-
money European US-dollar-put/Japanese-yen-call
options, one of which would expire at the end of
each month over the course of a year.
In doing so, PAE obtained the right to sell US$20
million and buy Y2.003 billion at the end of each
month, assuming that the dollar was worth no more
than Y100.15--the price of the options--at the time
each option expired.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options to
Manage Double-Faced FX Risk (4/7)
Strategy/Outcome:
There could be two scenarios based on the dollar/yen
exchange rate at the end of each month.
Scenario I: The dollar defied expectations and
appreciated against the yen.
In this scenario, PAE could buy the yen at the
much favorable rate in the spot market, and lose
only the premium paid to purchase the options.
Hence, the cost savings through the yen
purchase in the spot market offsets the option
premium.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options to
Manage Double-Faced FX Risk (5/7)
Strategy/Outcome:
Scenario II: The dollar behaved as predicted
and plummeted against the yen through the
first half of 1995.
=> The dollar/yen spot rate closed March at
86.57, down 10.14 yen from the previous
month and off 13.58 yen from the 100.15
rate at which PAE purchased the options in
early January.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options to
Manage Double-Faced FX Risk (6/7)
Strategy/Outcome:
i) If there were no hedging:
With monthly cash flows of $20 million, PAE
could obtain Y1,731.4 million at the March spot
rate of Y86.57/$.
Compared to Y2,003 million based on January’s
spot rate, PAE’s currency exposure could have
cost the company Y271.60 million, or
$2,711,932, on its Japanese imports.
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Case Study: Using Currency Options to
Manage Double-Faced FX Risk (7/7)
Strategy/Outcome:
ii) Owing to the hedging strategy:
PAE exercised the options on expiration and
secured an exchange rate of Y100.15/$.
The steep fall of the dollar meant that PAE’s
March options were deep in-the-money.
A potential loss of $2,711,932 was reduced by
more than 75% to an actual loss of only
$383,424 (the cost of options).
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Advantages of Currency Options
The most that can ever be lost is the price paid for
the option, but there’s unlimited profit potential.
Options are highly flexible tools for designing
hedges or targeting investment objectives.
Easy to buy the protection you need and sell off
coverage you do not need.
Hedging with options can be reconfigured if information
about the size or timing of the underlying exposure
changes or if changes in the company’s risk
management policy require more or less coverage.
Possible for a simultaneous buy and sell of options
(e.g., spread, collar).
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