Climate change and impacts in Viet Nam
Viet Nam is considered as one of the most vulnerable countries due to CC and sea level rise. If sea level rise of 1 m, Viet Nam will loose about 12% of land, 23% of population will be affected. Typhoons occur more frequently with higher intensity. Temperature increases and change in rainfall pattern will affect agriculture and water resources.
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE
AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM
AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM
• Viet Nam is considered as one of the most vulnerable
countries due to CC and sea level rise.
• If sea level rise of 1 m, Viet Nam will loose about 12% of
land, 23% of population will be affected.
• Typhoons occur more frequently with higher intensity.
• Temperature increases and change in rainfall pattern will
affect agriculture and water resources.
Impacts of sea level rise
“Large percentage of
3m Vietnam’s population and
economic activities are
located in these two river
deltas. 14% of Vietnam
population would be
impacted by a 1m SLR. This
is the largest percentage of
2m 4m
impacted population among
all 84 countries. Vietnam
impacted population would
1m reach 35% with a 5m SLR.
The impact of SLR on
5m
Vietnam’s GDP and urban
extent follow the impact on
WB 2007 its population”.
Inundation in Mekong River Delta
due to 1 m Sea Level Rise
Source: HMS
Climate Change in Vietnam
• Annual average temperature 23.0
O
Annual temperature
C
increases about 0.10C per decade.
In some summer months, 22.5
temperature increases about 0.1- 22.0
0.3oC per decade. 3 4
2
21.5
1
• More heavy
Yea
rainfalls 21.0
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
r 2004
causing severe Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time
step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of Temperature at A Luoi
floods; station.
• Rainfall
5000 m Rainfall of Aug.-
decreases in m Dec.
dry season 4000
3 4
(Jul., Aug.) and 3000
2
increases in 2000 1
rainy season 1000
Year
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
(Sep. to Nov.). Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average
(time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of August-
Source: Vietnam National communication December rainfall at A Luoi station.
Climate Change in Vietnam
Cumulative tracks of tropical cyclones (1985–2005)
[Nicholls et al.., 2007]
Typhoon trajectory moves southward
and typhoon season shifts to later
months of the year;
Climate Change in Vietnam
• High floods occur more frequently in the Central
and Southern Vietnam.
• Drought happen every year in most regions of the
country.
Climate Change Vietnam
• ENSO has stronger effects
on weather regime and
climatic features in various
areas of Viet Nam;
• Sea level rises from 2.5-3
cm per decade in the last
century.
Impacts on Coastal Zone
Vulnerability of delta dwelling populations
[Source: Nicholls et al., 2007]
Impacts of
Climate Change
Water
Respurses
Public Agriculture
Health
Climate
Environ Change
Forestry
ment
Tourism Energy
Impact on Agriculture
Yield of rice decrease • Shift of planting boundary: By 2070s,
by 10% for every 1oC tropical trees/ crops would be able to grow
increase in growing at the altitude 100-550 meters higher and
season minimum move 100-200 km northwards compared to
temperature (IPCC AR4 present.
WG2TS, 2007) • Large areas in Mekong and Red River deltas
would be under salt water due to sea level
rise.
Source: Vietnam
National
communication
Impacts on Water Resources
• Instability in rainfall would cause
more severe floods in rainy season
and droughts in dry season.
• Increase in frequency and intensity
of typhoons, storms would cause
high floods & inundation, flash
floods, landslide and erosion.
• Increasing water shortage and
growing water demand threaten
water supply, water use conflicts.
Source: Vietnam National communication
Impacts on Forestry
• Decrease of mangrove forest,
due to sea level rise.
• Forest with drought stand
varieties would increase due to
low soil moisture and high
evapotranspiration.
• Biodiversity degradation:
extinction of endangered
species;
• Increasing risk of forest fire;
• Increase and wide spread of
plant pests and diseases.
Source: Vietnam National communication
Impacts on Aquaculture & Fisheries
• Sea level rise would reduce fresh
water creatures in rivers &
estuaries, high temperature –
reduce high valuable sub-tropical
fishes;
• Habitat loss for young creatures
due to mangrove decrease;
• Reducing sea products
productivity and commercial
quality due to:
– Migration of fishes;
– Reduction of body weight.
Source: Vietnam National communication
Impacts on Coastal Zone
• Large areas of the Mekong, Red River
deltas and Central coastal zone would
be inundated due to sea level rise.
• Coastal & estuarine wetlands would
be affected due to frequent floods,
severe drought & salinity (Ca Mau,
Ho Chi Minh City, Vung Tau and
Nam Dinh)
• Livelihood of coastal population will
be affected by more severe storms,
flood, drought and sea level rise.
Projections for a 1 m sea level rise: 15,000-
20,000 km2 of Mekong River delta flooded,
affecting 3.5 to 5 million people, respectively.
IPCC AR4, 2007
Impacts on Energy, Transportation
• Oil, gas platforms would be
affected by typhoons, storms;
• Seaports and roads designed
basing on historical sea level
would be affected.
• Less energy generation due to drought ;
• Unstable flow regimes may lead to conflict in water
regulation at hydropower stations.
• More energy consumption for due to high temperature and
humidity.
Source: Vietnam National communication
Impacts on Human Health
Negative Impact Positive
Impact
Very high confidence
Malaria: contraction and expansion,
changes in transmission season
High confidence
Increase in malnutrition
Increase in the number of people suffering
from deaths, disease and injuries from
extreme weather events
Increase in the frequency of cardio-respiratory
diseases from changes in air quality
Change in the range of infectious disease vector
Reduction of cold-related deaths
Medium confidence
Increase in the burden of diarrheal diseases
