Chapter 2: Indicators of Financial Structure, Development, and Soundness
This chapter presents an overview of quantitative indicators of financial structure, devel-
opment, and soundness. It provides guidance on key system-wide and sectoral indicators,
including definitions, measurement, and usage. Key data sources for these indicators
are explained in appendix C (Data Sources for Financial Sector Assessments). Detailed
analysis and benchmarking of these indicators are discussed in chapters 3 and 4. More
detailed data requirements are presented in appendix B (Illustrative Data Questionnaires
for Comprehensive Financial Sector Assessments)....
2
Chapter 2
Indicators of Financial Structure,
Development, and Soundness
This chapter presents an overview of quantitative indicators of financial structure, devel-
opment, and soundness. It provides guidance on key system-wide and sectoral indicators,
including definitions, measurement, and usage. Key data sources for these indicators
are explained in appendix C (Data Sources for Financial Sector Assessments). Detailed
analysis and benchmarking of these indicators are discussed in chapters 3 and 4. More
detailed data requirements are presented in appendix B (Illustrative Data Questionnaires
for Comprehensive Financial Sector Assessments).
2.1 Financial Structure and Development
Indicators of financial structure include system-wide indicators of size, breadth, and
composition of the financial system; indicators of key attributes such as competition,
concentration, efficiency, and access; and measures of the scope, coverage, and outreach
of financial services.
2.1.1 System-wide Indicators
Financial structure is defined in terms of the aggregate size of the financial sector, its
sectoral composition, and a range of attributes of individual sectors that determine their
effectiveness in meeting users’ requirements. The evaluation of financial structure should
cover the roles of the key institutional players, including the central bank, commercial and
merchant banks, savings institutions, development finance institutions, insurance compa-
nies, mortgage entities, pension funds, and financial market institutions. The functioning
of financial markets, including money, foreign exchange, and capital markets (including
15
Financial Sector Assessment: A Handbook
bonds, equities, and derivative and structured finance products) should also be covered.
1 For financial institutions, the structural overview should focus on identifying the number
and types of institutions, as well as growth trends of major balance sheet aggregates; for
2 financial markets, a description of the size and growth trends in various financial market
instruments (volume and value) would be appropriate. The overview should also reflect
3 new linkages among financial markets and institutions that may be forged from a variety
of sources, including innovations in financial instruments, new entrants into financial
4 markets (e.g., hedge funds), and changing practices among financial market participants
(e.g., energy trading and investments by financial institutions).
5 The overall size of the system could be ascertained by the value of financial assets,
both in absolute dollar terms and as a ratio of gross domestic product (GDP).1 Although
6 identifying the absolute dollar amount of financial assets is informative, normalizing
financial assets on GDP facilitates benchmarking of the state of financial development
and allows comparison across countries at different stages of development. Other indica-
7
tors of financial size and depth that could be usefully examined include ratios of broad
money to GDP (M2 to GDP),2 private sector credit to GDP (DCP to GDP),3 and ratio
8 of bank deposits to GDP (deposits/GDP). However, one should be careful in interpret-
ing observed ratios because they are substantially influenced by the state of financial
9 and general economic development in individual countries. Cross-country comparisons
of economies at similar stages of development are, therefore, useful in obtaining reliable
10 benchmarks for “low” or “high” ratios.
The description of the number and types of financial intermediaries and markets is
11 also useful, and this information should be supplemented by information on the relative
composition of the financial system. Even though many countries do have a wide range
12 of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs), banking institutions still tend to dominate
overwhelmingly. In advanced markets and in many emerging markets, NBFIs, particularly
A pension funds or insurance companies, often play a larger part than do banks in domestic
and global asset allocation (and, sometimes, in the providing of credit). Similarly, market
participants such as hedge funds play an increased role in financial markets and in the per-
B
formance of various asset classes. Hence, for one to get a true view of financial structure, it
is useful to focus on the share of various sub-sectors (banks, non-banks, financial markets,
C etc.) in total financial assets by using assets of financial institutions in different sub-sectors
and value of financial instruments in different markets as numerators. This type of focus
D on market shares enables the assessor to get a quick indication of the “effective” structure
of the financial system. In addition, the presence of large financial conglomerates—also
E referred to as large and complex financial institutions (LCFIs)—in the domestic market
(either foreign-owned or domestic) would warrant special attention to the scope and scale
F of their activities, including exposures to other domestic institutions, as well as to intra-
group and cross-border exposures, to ascertain their local systemic importance.4
G Evaluating the overall growth of the financial system and of major sub-sectors is
important, and valuable information could be obtained by examining changes in the
H number and types of financial intermediaries, as well as the growth of financial assets in
each sector over time, in both nominal and real terms. Although a description of trends
I is informative, it is also critical to indicate the driving forces behind (a) observed chang-
es in institutions and their asset positions, and (b) the number of and growth rates of
16
Chapter 2: Indicators of Financial Structure, Development, and Soundness
available money and capital market instruments. One factor that has accounted for the
observed growth of financial systems in many countries (number of institutions and size 1
of assets) is financial liberalization, especially the softening of entry conditions for banks
and other financial institutions and the liberalization of interest rates, which has stimu- 2
lated financial markets (especially money markets). In addition, changes in prudential
regulation and accounting standards often have provided incentives for developing new 3
ways to manage risks (e.g., asset and liability management for insurance company and
pension funds) and have led to development of new risk-transfer instruments in capital 4
markets.
5
2.1.2 Breadth of the Financial System
6
Data on the financial breadth or penetration often serve as proxies for access of the popu-
lation to different segments of the financial sector. Well-functioning financial systems
should offer a wide range of financial services and products from a diversified set of finan-
7
cial intermediaries and markets. Ideally, there should be a variety of financial instruments
that provide alternative rates of return, risk, and maturities to savers, as well as different 8
sources of finance at varying interest rates and maturities. Evaluating the breadth or diver-
sity of the financial system should, therefore, involve identifying the existing financial 9
institutions, the existing markets for financial instruments, and the range of available
products and services. The relative composition of the financial system discussed above 10
is a first-cut approach to determining the extent of system diversification. In addition,
comparisons between bank and non-bank forms of financial intermediation are useful, for 11
instance, comparisons between banking credit and issues of bonds by the private sector.
Often, significant savings and financing through non-bank forms are indicators of finan- 12
cial diversity because bank deposits and loans constitute the traditional forms of savings
and credit in many countries. It is, therefore, useful to compare the extent of financial A
intermediation through banks with the amount of intermediation through insurance,
pensions, collective investment schemes, money markets, and capital markets. In particu-
lar, the share of various classes of asset holders—specifically, households, non-financial
B
corporations, banks, and NBFIs—within the total capital market instruments or mutual
fund assets can provide valuable information on financial diversification.
C
To supplement the overall indicators of diversity, assessors should also focus on sec-
toral indicators of financial development. For instance, the development of the insurance D
industry could be measured by examining trends in the ratio of gross insurance premiums
to GDP, which could be broken down further into life and non-life premiums. Similarly, E
leasing penetration could be measured by the value of leased assets as a percentage of
total domestic investment. Table 2.1 shows a few sub-sectors of the financial system and F
suggests relevant indicators of their size and development. The breadth of the financial
system also could be analyzed in terms of the outreach of existing financial institutions. A G
common indicator related to this outreach is the branch network of the banking system,
in particular, the total number of branches and the number of branches per thousand H
inhabitants. A comparison of the distribution of branches between rural and urban areas
or among different provinces could also be useful as an indicator of the outreach of bank- I
ing outlets.
17
Financial Sector Assessment: A Handbook
Table 2.1. Sectoral Indicators of Financial Development
1
Sub-sector Indicator
Banking • Total number of banks
2 • Number of branches and outlets
• Number of branches/thousand population
• Bank deposits/GDP (%)
3 •
•
Bank assets/total financial assets (%)
Bank assets/GDP (%)
Insurance • Number of insurance companies
4 •
•
Gross premiums/GDP (%)
Gross life premiums/GDP (%)
• Gross non-life premiums/GDP (%)
5 Pensions •
•
Types of pension plans
Percentage of labor force covered by pensions
• Pension fund assets/GDP (%)
• Pension fund assets/total financial assets (%)
6
Mortgage • Mortgage assets/total financial assets
• Mortgage debt stock/GDP
7 Leasing • Leased assets/total domestic investment
Money markets • Types and value of money market instruments
• New issues and growth in outstanding value
8 • Number and value of daily (weekly) transactions in the instruments
Foreign exchange markets • Volume and value of daily foreign exchange transactions
• Adequacy of foreign exchange (reserves in months of imports, as ratio to short-term
9 external debt or to broad money)
Capital markets • Number of listed securities (bonds and equities)
10 •
•
Share of households, corporations, banks, and NBFIs in the holdings of securities
Number and value of new issues (bonds and equities)
• Market capitalization/GDP (%)
• Value traded/market capitalization (%)
11 • Size of derivative markets
• Types and number of schemes (unique and mixed funds)
• Total assets and growth rates (nominal and as percentage of GDP)
12 Colllective investment funds
•
•
Total number of investors and average balance per investor
Share of households, corporations, banks, and NBFIs, in total mutual funds assets
A
B 2.1.3 Competition, Concentration, and Efficiency
Competition in the financial system can be defined as the extent to which financial
C markets are contestable and the extent to which consumers can choose a wide range of
financial services from a variety of providers. Competition is often a desirable feature
D because it normally leads to increased institutional efficiency, lower costs for clients, and
improvements in the quality and range of financial services provided. There are numer-
E ous measures of competition, including the total number of financial institutions, changes
in market share, ease of entry, price of services, and so forth. In addition, the degree of
F diversity of the financial system could be an indicator of competition or the lack thereof
because the emergence of vibrant non-bank intermediaries and capital markets often have
G been a source of effective competition for banking systems in many countries. All things
remaining equal, an increase in the number of financial institutions or an expansion in
H available financial market instruments will increase competition by expanding the avail-
able sources of financial services that consumers can access. Ease of entry into the system
I could be judged by looking at the regulatory and policy requirements for licensing, for
example, the required minimum paid-up capital.
18
Chapter 2: Indicators of Financial Structure, Development, and Soundness
In many cases, the ownership structure of the financial system can be indicative of
competition or lack thereof. For instance, banks of different ownership often have dif- 1
ferent mandates and clientele, leading to substantial market segmentation. Also, systems
dominated by state-owned financial institutions tend to be less competitive than those in 2
which privately owned institutions are very active because state ownership often dampens
commercial orientation. In some cases, the shares of domestic- and foreign-owned finan- 3
cial institutions in various financial sub-sectors could be relevant in assessing competition
and incentives for financial innovations. 4
Measures of concentration often have been used as indicators of competition.
Concentration is defined as the degree to which the financial sector is controlled by the 5
biggest institutions in the market (as defined by market shares). For example, the three-
bank concentration ratio measures the market share of the top three banks in the system, 6
defined in terms of assets, deposits, or branches. Deciding what is concentrated and what
is not depends a lot on judgment, and benchmarking becomes critical.5 A more sophisti-
7
cated measure of concentration is the Herfindahl Index (HI), which is the sum of squares
of the market shares of all firms in a sector. Higher values of the index indicate greater
market concentration. When applied to the financial sector, this index uses information
8
about the market share of each bank to obtain a single summary measure.6 The concept
of concentration also could be applied to financial markets, especially by examining the 9
share of different market instruments in the total outstanding value of financial market
instruments. For example, the relative shares of money and capital market instruments in 10
total financial assets could give an indication of the extent to which financial markets are
positioned between short-term and long-term intermediation. Information on holdings of 11
the instruments by types of investors and by number of issuers of different instruments also
helps assess market competition. 12
The sustainable development of a financial system and the degree to which it provides
support to real sector activities depend to a large extent on the efficiency with which A
intermediation occurs. Efficiency refers to the ability of the financial sector to provide
high-quality products and services at the lowest cost. Competition and efficiency of the
B
financial system are related to a large extent because more competitive systems invari-
ably turn out to be more efficient (all other things being equal). Quantitative measures
of efficiency that could be evaluated include (a) total costs of financial intermediation
C
as percentage of total assets and (b) interest rate spreads (lending minus deposit rates).
Components of intermediation costs include operating costs (staff expenses and other D
overhead), taxes, loan–loss provisions, net profits, and so forth. Those costs can be
derived from the aggregated balance sheet and income statements for financial institu- E
tions. However, interest rate spreads sometimes remain high despite efficiency gains
because of the need to build loan–loss provisions or charge a risk premium on lending to F
high-risk borrowers.
For money and capital markets, efficiency implies that current security prices fully G
reflect all available information. Hence, in an efficient financial market, day-to-day
movements of market prices tend to be random, and information on past prices would not H
help predict future prices. The bid–ask spread (i.e., the difference between prices at which
participants are willing to buy and sell financial instruments) is often used as a proxy for I
measuring the efficiency of markets, with more efficient markets exhibiting narrower
19
Financial Sector Assessment: A Handbook
Table 2.2. Indicators of Financial System Performance
1
Sub-sector Indicator
Competition and concentration • Total number of institutions
2 • Interest rate spreads and prices of financial services
• Intermediary concentration ratios (market share of 3 or 5 of the largest institutions)
• Financial market concentration ratios (market share of the largest financial instruments,
3 as a percentage of total financial assets)
• Herfindahl index
Efficiency • Interest rate spreads
4 • Intermediation costs (as percentage of total assets)
Liquidity • Ratio of value traded to market capitalization
• Average bid–ask spread
5
6
bid–ask spreads. Because bid–ask spread also reflects market liquidity, as discussed below,
additional analysis of the extent of competition in the market and of volatility of price
7 movements would be needed to assess efficiency. In addition, measures of price volatil-
ity are sometimes used to substitute for market efficiency, although short-run changes in
8 volatility may reflect shifts in the amount of liquidity in that market.
Two important dimensions of market liquidity should be considered: market depth and
9 market tightness. Market depth refers to the ability of the market to absorb large trade
volumes without significant impact on market prices.7 This dimension is usually measured
10 by the ratio of value traded to market capitalization (turnover ratio), with higher ratios
indicating more liquid markets. Another dimension of liquidity is market tightness—abil-
11 ity to match supply and demand at low cost that is measured by the average bid–ask
spread. More liquid markets usually have narrower bid–ask spreads. Further discussion of
12 these indicators can be found in section 2.2.4.
Table 2.2 summarizes the indicators of financial system performance that have been
A discussed in this section.
B 2.1.4 Scope and Coverage of Financial Services
The financial system provides five key services: (a) savings facilities, (b) credit alloca-
C tion and monitoring of borrowers, (c) payments, (d) risk mitigation, and (e) liquidity
services.
D Savings mobilization can be assessed by examining the effectiveness with which the
financial system provides saving facilities and mobilizes financial resources from house-
E holds and firms. The extent of financial savings could be ascertained by examining the
level and trends in the ratio of broad money to GDP. As mentioned earlier, this indicator
F may overstate the true picture if currency constitutes a high proportion of broad money.
Other more specific indicators of access to savings facilities include the ratio of bank
G deposits to GDP and the proportion of the population with bank accounts.
Information on the outreach of the financial system can help interpret developments
H in financial savings. Hence, indicators such as the total number of bank branches, the
population per bank branch, and the distribution of branches and other outlets (e.g., rural
I or urban) could provide valuable information on the access of the population to saving
facilities. Further, it is important to assess the range of saving vehicles that are available
20
Chapter 2: Indicators of Financial Structure, Development, and Soundness
because, in many countries, traditional bank deposits are the most common form of finan-
cial savings. Saving through non-bank forms of financial intermediation are, therefore, 1
crucial to financial diversity, and development indicators for non-bank intermediaries
such as insurance, pensions, and capital markets could be useful in gauging the degree to 2
which the population uses non-bank forms of financial savings. Hence, household and
corporate holdings of non-bank financial assets (e.g., bonds) could provide extra informa- 3
tion on the degree of access to financial savings.
The ratio of private sector bank credit to GDP is a common measure of the provision 4
of credit to the economy, as well as of banking depth. Often, this indicator is supple-
mented by information on the ratio of loans to total bank deposits. Where available, the 5
volume of finance raised through the issuance of bonds and money market instruments
should supplement information on bank credit. Analyzing trends in those indicators 6
should reveal the overall degree to which the banking sector provides credit to firms and
households. It is also useful to assess the sectoral distribution of private sector credit to
7
gauge the alignment of bank credit with the distribution of domestic output. Therefore,
the relative proportion of total credit going to agriculture, manufacturing, and services
would be relevant information in evaluating the adequacy of the level of credit provided
8
to the economy.
A key function of financial systems in market economies is to offer fast and secure 9
means of transferring funds and making payments for goods and services. The state of
development of the payment system is of interest here, especially the focus on the various 10
instruments for making payments, including cash, checks, payment orders, wire transfers,
and debit and credit cards. The proportion of payments (volume and value) made with 11
different payment instruments can reveal the developmental status of the payment sys-
tem, with cash-based economies at the lower end of the spectrum. Some indicators such 12
as the number of days for clearing checks, the number and distribution of clearing centers,
and the volume and value of checks cleared could provide general information on the A
effectiveness of existing money transfer mechanisms. In addition, it is relevant to examine
the various risks associated with the payments system, through indicators such as access
B
to settlement credit, size of settlement balances, and so forth, thereby complementing the
qualitative information from assessments of Core Principles for Systemically Important
Payment Systems.8
C
The major risk mitigation services offered by the financial system include insur-
ance (life and non-life) and derivative markets. The ratio of gross premiums to GDP is D
a popular indicator of development in the insurance industry, and this indicator could
be supplemented with a breakdown of premiums between life and non-life insurance. E
A deep and well-functioning insurance industry would offer a wide range of products in
both the life and non-life business, including motor vehicle, marine, fire, homeowners, F
mortgage, workers’ compensation, and fidelity insurance and life insurance, as well as
disability, annuities, medical, and health insurance. In addition, coverage of derivative G
markets—options, futures, swaps, and structured finance products––where relevant in
terms of available instruments, liquidity, and transaction costs, would be important, owing H
to their role in managing risk and in facilitating price discovery in spot markets.
Liquidity service provided by financial systems is reflected in maturity transforma- I
tion and secondary market arrangements, which facilitate investment in high-yielding
21
Financial Sector Assessment: A Handbook
projects. Most high-return projects require a long-term commitment of capital; however,
1 savers are often reluctant to give up their savings for long periods of time.9 The role of
the financial system is to transform liquid, short-term savings into relatively illiquid,
2 long-term investments, thus promoting capital accumulation. The availability of liquid-
ity, therefore, allows savers to hold assets that they can sell easily if they need to redeem
3 their savings.
Against this background, it is important to examine the degree of access that specified
4 target groups (e.g., farmers, the poor, small and medium enterprises, or different geograph-
ic regions) have to those financial services. Access is defined as the availability and cost of
5 financial services and could be measured in a variety of ways.10 First, relevant measures of
the supply of financial services includes the numbers of different types of financial institu-
6 tions, the number of branches and other service outlets, the number of clients served, and
the population per outlet. The volume of services (deposits, credit, money transmission,
etc.) provided is another useful measure, especially if it is broken down by clientele and
7
size (i.e., in a breakdown by socioeconomic groups or broad sectors or by size distribution).
Second, it is also relevant to consider demand-side measures of access. However, demand-
8 side indicators are not easy to construct and often require surveys to collect relevant data.
Those surveys have often focused on collecting relevant information such as the savings
9 and credit needs of households and enterprises, the needs relative to the supply, and the
ease or difficulty of meeting those needs.11 Finally, it is important to examine the costs
10 of financial services, usually by examining the level and trends in spreads between the
borrowing and lending rates, the general interest rate structure, and the prices of other
11 financial services (e.g., fees and minimum balances for deposits, as well as cost and time
of payment services).
12 In addition, indicators of the functioning of various elements of financial system
infrastructure—the insolvency and creditor rights regime, the systemic liquidity arrange-
A ments (other than those of payment systems, which have already been covered as a core
financial system function), and the information and governance arrangements (e.g.,
B credit reporting, disclosure rules)—can provide useful insights into costs and efficiency of
financial transactions. Appendix B (Illustrative Data Questionnaires for Comprehensive
Financial Sector Assessment) contains examples of those types of indicators.
C
D 2.2 Financial Soundness Indicators
E Financial soundness indicators (FSIs) are indicators of the current financial health and
soundness of the financial institutions in a country, as well as of their corporate and
F household counterparts, and FSIs play a crucial role in financial stability assessments. FSIs
include both aggregated individual institution data and indicators that are representative
G of the markets in which the financial institutions operate. FSIs are calculated and dissemi-
nated for use in macroprudential surveillance, which is the assessment and monitoring of
H the strengths and vulnerabilities of financial systems.
FSIs are a relatively new body of economic statistics that reflect a mixture of influ-
I ences. Some of the concepts are drawn from prudential and commercial measurement
frameworks, which have been developed to monitor individual entities. Other concepts
22
Chapter 2: Indicators of Financial Structure, Development, and Soundness
Table 2.3. The Core Set of Financial Soundness Indicators
1
Indicator Indicates Comment
Deposit-taking institutionsa
2
Regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets Capital adequacy Broad measure of capital, including items giving less
protection against losses, such as subordinated debt,
tax credits, and unrealized capital gains
3
Regulatory Tier I capital to risk-weighted Capital adequacy Highest quality capital such as shareholder equity
assets and retained earnings, relative to risk-weighted
assets
4
Nonperforming loans net of provisions Capital adequacy Indicates the potential size of additional provisions
to capital that may be needed relative to capital
Nonperforming loans to total gross loans Asset quality Indicates the credit quality of banks’ loans 5
Sectoral distribution of loans to total Asset quality Identifies exposure concentrations to particular
loans sectors
6
Return on assets and return on equity Earnings and profitability Assesses scope for earnings to offset losses relative
to capital or loan and asset portfolio
Interest margin to gross income Earnings and profitability Indicates the importance of net interest income and 7
scope to absorb losses
Noninterest expenses to gross income Earnings and profitability Indicates extent to which high noninterest expenses
weakens earnings 8
Liquid assets to total assets and liquid Liquidity Assesses the vulnerability of the sector to loss of
assets to short-term liabilities access to market sources of funding or a run on
deposits 9
Net open position in foreign exchange Exposure to FX risk Measures foreign currency mismatch
to capital
10
a. Domestically controlled institutions, that may be grouped in different categories according to control, business lines, or group
structure.
11
12
are drawn from macroeconomic measurement frameworks, which have been developed
to monitor aggregate activity in the economy. A list of FSIs, grouped into a core set and
an encouraged set, is presented in tables 2.3 and 2.4 and will be discussed in this chapter.
A
Detailed exposition and guidance on those FSIs can be obtained from the Compilation
Guide on Financial Soundness Indicators (IMF 2004). It contains a discussion of the distinc- B
tion between a “core set” for which data are generally available and are found to be highly
relevant for analytic purposes in almost all countries and an “encouraged set” for which C
data are not as readily available and whose relevance could vary across countries.12
The list of FSIs discussed herein consists mainly of aggregate balance sheet measures. D
This type of aggregation of individual institution-level indicators (microprudential
indicators) into financial soundness indicators (macroprudential indicators) necessarily E
involves a loss of information because the distribution of prudential indicators of indi-
vidual institutions is also a crucial dimension of financial stability. Although aggregation F
is required for facilitating macroprudential analysis and international comparison, the
assessments could be strengthened by allowing some disaggregation through peer groups G
or through the monitoring of the distributional characteristics of various indicators. In
addition, FSIs themselves are either backward-looking or contemporaneous indicators H
of financial soundness, available often with a lag or low frequency. Therefore, proper
interpretation and use of FSIs requires a range of analytical tools (discussed in chapter
I
3), which includes conducting stress tests of individual institutions and monitoring the
23
I
F
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
E
C
B
H
D
A
G
12
11
10
24
Table 2.4. The Encouraged Set of Financial Soundness Indicators
Indicator Indicates Comment
Encouraged seta
Corporate sector
Total debt to equity Leverage Provides an indication of credit risk because a highly leveraged corporate sector is more vulnerable to shocks
Return on equity Earnings and profitability Indicates the extent to which earnings are available to cover losses
Financial Sector Assessment: A Handbook
Earnings to interest and principal expenses Debt service capacity Indicates the extent to which earnings available to cover losses are reduced by interest and principal payments
Corporate net foreign exchange exposure to equity Foreign exchange risk Reveals corporate sector vulnerability to exchange rate movements
Number of applications for protection from creditorsb
Capital to assets Capital adequacy Broad measure of capital adequacy, which is a buffer for losses
Geographical distribution of loans to total loans Asset quality Identifies credit exposure concentrations to particular countries by the banking system
Gross asset position in financial derivatives to capitalc Exposure to derivatives Provides a crude indicator of exposure to derivatives
Gross liability position in financial derivatives to capitalc Exposure to derivatives Provides a crude indicator of exposure to derivatives
Large exposures to capital Asset quality Identifies credit exposure to large borrowers
Trading income to total income Earning and profitability Indicates the dependence on trading income
Personnel expenses to noninterest expenses Earnings and profitability Indicates the extent to which high noninterest expenses reduces earnings
Spread between reference lending and deposit rates Earnings and profitability Indicates level of competition in the banking sector and the dependence of earnings on the interest rate spread
Spread between highest and lowest interbank rate Liquidity Market indicator of counterparty risks in the interbank market
Customer deposits to total (non-interbank) loans Liquidity Assesses the vulnerability to loss of access to customer deposits
Foreign currency-denominated loans to total loans Foreign exchange risk Measures risk to loan portfolios from foreign exchange movements
Foreign currency-denominated liabilities to total liabilities Foreign exchange risk Measures extent of dollarization
Net open position in equities to capital Equity market risk Measures exposure to equity price movements
Market liquidity
Average bid-ask spread in the securities marketd Liquidity Indicates liquidity in the securities market
Average daily turnover ratio in the securities marketd Liquidity Indicates liquidity in the securities market
Other financial corporations
Assets to total financial system assets Size Indicates size and significance within the financial sector
Assets to GDP Size Indicates size and significance within the financial sector
Households
Household debt to GDP Leverage Provides an indication of credit risk because a highly leveraged household sector is more vulnerable to shocks
Household debt service and principal payments to Debt service capacity Indicates a household’s ability to cover its debt payments
income
Real estate markets
Real estate prices Real estate prices Measures trends in the real estate market
Residential real estate loans to total loans Exposure to real estate Measures banks’ exposure to the residential real estate sector
Commercial real estate loans to total loans Exposure to real estate Measures banks’ exposure to the commercial real estate sector
Other relevant indicators that are not formally part of the encouraged set of FSIse
a. See Compilation Guide for Financial Soundness Indicators (IMF 2004) for a detailed definition and exposition of encouraged indicators.
b. These may be grouped in different categories based on ownership, business lines, or group structure.
c. May be in notional amounts or market value. The latter provides a better measure of exposure but may be more difficult to obtain.
d. Or in other markets that are most relevant to bank liquidity, such as foreign exchange markets.
e. Other indicators such as additional balance sheet data (e.g., maturity mismatches in foreign currency), data on the life insurance sector, or information on the corporate and household sector may be added.
Chapter 2: Indicators of Financial Structure, Development, and Soundness
distribution of stress tests results, as well as examining the determinants of FSIs and fore-
casting their future course. 1
In addition, FSIs can be complemented by various market-based indicators, which
are forward-looking indicators of soundness and are available with higher frequency. The 2
various categories of FSIs are discussed in the following sections.
3
2.2.1 FSIs for Non-financial Sectors
4
Corporate sector indicators tend to focus on indicators of leverage (or gearing), profit-
ability, liquidity, and debt-servicing capacity because of those indicators’ demonstrated 5
usefulness in predicting corporate distress or failure.13 Four commonly used measures of
corporate sector health are the debt-to-equity ratio, the return on equity, the cash ratio,
6
and the debt service coverage (or interest coverage ratio). Total debt to equity measures
leverage or the extent to which activities are financed out of other than own funds. High
corporate leverage increases the vulnerability of corporations to shocks and may impair
7
their repayment capacity. Return on equity is commonly used to capture profitability and
efficiency in using capital. Over time, it can also provide information on the sustainability 8
of capital positions. Profitability is a critical determinant of corporate strength, affecting
the capital growth, the ability to withstand adverse events, and, ultimately, the repay- 9
ment capacity. Sharp declines in corporate sector profitability, for example, as a result of
economic deceleration, may serve as a leading indicator of financial difficulties. 10
The cash ratio is a measure of short-term assets held against short-term liabilities,
after deductions for inventories and receivables. The cash ratio measures the capacity 11
to absorb sudden changes in cash flows. Debt service coverage measures the capacity to
cover debt service payments (interest and principal) and serves as an indicator of the risk 12
that a firm may not be able to make the required payments on its debts. One commonly
used measure of debt service coverage is the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, A
and amortization divided by debt servicing costs (principal plus interest). FSIs on the
corporate sector can be compiled by aggregating data from the consolidated financial
statements of publicly listed corporations and, thus, are a direct analog of the indicators
B
used by shareholders and market participants to monitor the financial health of individual
corporations. For the economy as a whole, domestically consolidated data (e.g., data based
C
on National Income Accounts) can be used when corporate financial statements do not
provide sufficient coverage. D
Household sector indicators of leverage, liquidity, and debt servicing capacity can be
useful in monitoring the health of the sector. Two common measures are used: the ratio E
of household debt to GDP, and the ratio of household debt burden to income. The house-
hold-debt-to-GDP ratio measures the overall level of household indebtedness (commonly F
related to consumer loans and mortgages) as a share of GDP. High levels of borrowing
increase the vulnerability of the household sector to economic and financial market G
shocks and may impair their repayment capacity. The ratio of household debt burden
to income measures the capacity of households to cover their debt payments (interest H
and principal). It is also a potentially significant predictor of future consumer spending
growth: a high debt-to-service ratio sustained over several quarters can affect the rate of I
growth of personal consumption.14
25
Financial Sector Assessment: A Handbook
Monitoring of the real estate sector tends to focus on indicators of significant swings
1 in prices or volumes of lending and construction because this information often signals
future problems in credit quality and collateral. Rapid increases in real estate prices—
2 often fueled by expansionary monetary policies or by large capital inflows—that are fol-
lowed by a sharp economic downturn can have a detrimental impact on financial sector
3 health and soundness.15 Ideally, a range of indicators should be analyzed to get a sense of
real estate market developments (demand, supply, prices, and links to the business cycle)
4 and to assess financial sector exposure to the real estate sector. If one is to determine the
exposure of the banking sector to the real estate sector, it is important to have informa-
5 tion on the size of the credit exposure and the riskiness of the exposure. Different types of
loans related to real estate may have very different risk characteristics, so it may be useful
6 to distinguish lending according to purpose (e.g., lending for commercial real estate or
to construction companies and lending for residential real estate, including mortgages).
The level of sophistication of the mortgage market (e.g., mortgage interest rate structure,
7
availability of home equity release products) may also have implications for risk manage-
ment and financial stability.
8
9 2.2.2 FSIs for Banking
Banking sector FSIs can provide useful quantitative information on the stability or vul-
10 nerability of the banking system.16 Banking sector FSIs can be grouped according to six
key areas of potential vulnerability in the CAMELS (Capital adequacy, Asset quality,
11 Management soundness, Earnings and profitability, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to market
risk) framework. Most FSIs are compiled by aggregating microprudential indicators for
12 individual institutions to produce a measure for key peer groups such as domestically
owned banks, local branches, foreign subsidiaries, state-owned banks, complex groups, or
A the entire banking system.17 Non-bank FSIs (such as those for the corporate and house-
hold sectors or those for insurance) can be used to assess credit risks arising for banks from
their credit and other exposures to non-bank sectors.
B Each of the six subgroups of bank FSIs has a different part in the stability assessment.
Indicators of capital adequacy can be used to measure the capacity of the sector to absorb
C losses. Because risks to the solvency of financial institutions most often derive from
impairment of assets, the second category of FSIs is asset quality. FSIs in this category
D monitor loan quality and exposure concentrations of bank asset portfolios. Indicators
of management efficiency are used to capture the importance of sound management in
E ensuring the health and stability of banks. A variety of data on margins, income, and
expenses can be used to measure earnings and profitability because earnings indicate the
F ability to absorb losses without drawing on capital. In contrast, rapid growth in earnings
or profits may also signal excessive risk taking. Measures of liquidity indicate the ability of
G a banking system to withstand shocks to cash flows. FSIs for liquidity measure the liquid
assets available to a bank in the event of a loss of market funding or an outflow of depos-
H its. Market liquidity measures also can be included to monitor the liquidity of the main
securities held by banks. Banks are then exposed to market risk from their increasingly
I diversified operations and positions in financial instruments. Sensitivity to market risk
(changes in market prices, particularly interest rates and exchange rates and, occasionally,
26
Chapter 2: Indicators of Financial Structure, Development, and Soundness
equity prices) can be measured using information on net open positions, durations, and 1
stress test results.
2
2.2.3 FSIs for Insurance
3
Quantitative soundness indicators for the insurance sector can be presented within a
CARAMELS (Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Reinsurance, Adequacy of claims and 4
actuarial, Management soundness, Earnings and profitability, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to
market risk) framework. This framework is analogous to the CAMELS framework for the
5
banking sector. Das, Davies, and Podpiera (2003) propose a set of core and encouraged
soundness indicators for the insurance sector (grouped separately for life and non–life
insurance). The core indicators presented in table 2.5 are those considered necessary for
6
adequate surveillance of the sector whereas the encouraged set includes additional indica-
tors that are useful in monitoring more specific areas of vulnerability. 7
8
2.2.4 FSIs for Securities Markets
The stability of securities markets can be monitored using a range of quantitative indica- 9
tors that focus on market liquidity because of the important role that liquid securities play
10
Table 2.5. Insurance Financial Soundness Indicators: Core Set 11
Category Indicator Non-life Life
Capital adequacy Net premium/capital X 12
Capital/total assets X
Captial/technical reserves X
Asset quality (Real estate + unquoted equities + debtors)/total assets X X A
Receivables/(Gross premium + reinsurance recoveries) X X
Equities/total assets X X
Nonperforming loans to total gross loans X
B
Reinsurance and actuarial issues Risk retention ratio (net premium/gross premium) X X
Net technical reserves/average of net claims paid in last three years X
Net technical reserves/average of net premium received in last three
years
X
C
Management soundness Gross premium/number of employees X X
Assets per employee (total assets/number of employees) X X D
Earnings and profitability Loss ratio (net claims/net premium) X
Expense ratio (expense/net premium) X X
Combined ratio = loss ratio + expense ratio
Revisions to technical reserves/technical reserves
X
X
E
Investment income/net premium X
Investment income/investment assets X
Return on equity (ROE) X X F
Liquidity Liquid assets/current liabilities X X
Sensitivity to market risk Net open foreign exchange position/capital X X G
Duration of assets and liabilities X
Note: Relevance to life or non-life segment of Insurance is indicated by X.
Source: Das et al. (2003). The authors also propose a set of encouraged indicators for each of the above categories in order to H
capture additional dimensions. These include sectoral and geographic distribution of investments and underwritten business,
derivative exposures, risk weighted capital ratio, market based indicators (market/ book value, price/ earnings, and price/ gross
premium ratios), and measures of Group exposures (group debts/ total assets, proportion of business from group companies
(Premium + claims)/ total business.
I
27
Financial Sector Assessment: A Handbook
in the balance sheets of financial institutions.18 Market liquidity can be defined as a mea-
1 sure of volume of securities that can be sold in a relatively short period without having a
significant effect on their price. The literature typically recognizes two key dimensions of
2 market liquidity: tightness and depth. Tightness is a market’s ability to match supply and
demand at low cost. The bid-ask spread FSI may serve as an approximate index of tight-
3 ness in each market, in that a narrower spread indicates a more competitive market with
a larger number of buyers and sellers providing liquidity. Depth relates to the ability of
4 a market to absorb large trade flows without a significant effect on prices. When market
participants raise concerns about the decline in market liquidity, they typically refer to
5 a reduced ability to deal without having prices move against them; that is, they refer to
reduced market depth. The FSI of market turnover (gross average daily value of securities
6 traded relative to the stock) helps assess the liquidity of banks’ balance sheets by giving
an indication of the volume of securities that institutions can liquidate in the market.
7 Market depth also can be approximated by other volume variables, quota sizes, on-the-
run–off-the-run spreads, and volatilities.
8
2.2.5 Market-Based Indicators of Financial Soundness
9 Market-based measures drawn from price and volatility measures of various capital market
instruments can provide forward-looking indicators of financial soundness. For example,
10 default probabilities (for banks and non-banks) may be computed on the basis of models
of credit risk, using equity prices and balance sheet data. In some cases, volatilities and
11 risk premiums in market prices themselves provide indicators of likelihood of default.
Further discussion of those indicators is contained in chapter 3.
12
2.3 Aggregate Balance Sheet Structure of Financial and
A Non-financial Sectors—Inter-sectoral Linkages
B Analysis of stock variables in countries’ sectoral balance sheets (assets and liabilities of
financial firms, non-financial firms, households, government, and sub-sectors of those
C sectors, as appropriate) and the consolidated aggregate balance sheet (for the country)
can help highlight inter-sectoral linkages and can provide valuable information on the
D adequacy of financial structure and on the potential for financial instability. The bal-
ance sheet analysis focuses on (a) the determinants and evolution of stocks of assets and
E liabilities and (b) the likely shocks to the stock variables, both of which can trigger large
adjustments in flows (including cross-border capital flows, shifts in holdings of domestic
F or foreign currency assets, etc.). An approach of this type can, therefore, be a useful
complement to the traditional flow analysis that is based on data related to fiscal, balance-
G of-payments, and financial programming. A classification of claims on and liabilities to
any one sector from other sectors can reveal both the extent of access to financial services
H (in providing savings instruments, in offering credit intermediation, and in providing risk
diversification and insurance) and the extent of inter-sectoral linkages that highlight the
I potential effect of shocks in one sector on the other. In addition, balance sheet data clas-
sified by maturity, currency, contractual nature of liabilities (e.g., debt versus equity), and
28
Chapter 2: Indicators of Financial Structure, Development, and Soundness
Box 2.1 The Balance Sheet Approach—An Overview 1
Applications and Policy Implications shocks on these balance sheets typically are analyzed
in financial sector assessments as part of the mac- 2
Availability of comprehensive data on sectoral balance
roprudential analysis and the related stress–testing
sheets permits the analysis of relationship between
exercises. (See chapter 3 for further details.)
financial sector and real sectors (households, corpora- 3
tions, etc.) and how the deterioration in one can be
Data Availability and Limitations
reinforced or offset by a strengthening of the other. In
particular, capital account crises typically occur because A comprehensive analysis of sectoral balance sheets 4
of a sudden loss of confidence in the soundness of the is often constrained by a lack of relevant data. The
balance sheets of one of the countries’ main sectors: the absence of this information often leads to a focus
banking system, the corporate sector, the households, on a few key stock positions in the public sector
5
or the government. The negative impact of an initial balance sheet and in listed companies’ balance
adverse shock to a balance sheet will depend on the sheets. Therefore, for many countries, balance sheet 6
existing mismatches in the balance sheet. The cur- information beyond what is readily available must
rency mismatch (a predominance of domestic currency be gathered before complete intersectoral analysis
assets over foreign currency liabilities) or a maturity is feasible. Some efforts are under way to estab- 7
mismatch (a predominance of long-term illiquid assets lish good databases on balance sheets. The efforts
over short-term liquid liabilities) can expose the vul- to promote the compilation and dissemination of
nerability of a sector to sharp movements in exchange financial soundness indicators focuses on the needs 8
rate or interest rate or both, which arise from the initial of financial stability analysis. Other ongoing efforts
confidence shock, and it can lead to spillover into other in improving the providing of data to the Fund are
sectors, often snowballing in the process. For example, designed to strengthen availability of detailed bal-
9
a capital structure mismatch of firms (a predominance ance sheet data on external and public sector assets
of debt over own funds and equity liabilities in the bal- and liabilities. 10
ance sheet) can result in unsustainable debt servicing Although it is widely recognized that balance
burden because of an exchange rate or interest rate sheet analysis of the corporate sector is key to finan-
shock, thus leading to insolvency of firms, and illiquid- cial stability analysis, the availability of data poses 11
ity and insolvency of financial firms with exposures to practical limitations. Typically, data are available
the highly leveraged firms. only for listed companies; however, a much more
A loss of confidence in the banking system can lead, comprehensive and differentiated analysis of the 12
in turn, to runs on deposits and flight from currency, sector is needed to understand fully the access to
thereby exacerbating the initial currency and inter- financial services and vulnerabilities to financial
est rate shock. Banking crisis also could trigger the risks of this sector.
A
realization of contingent liabilities of the government, Financial stability reports published by various
as well as weaken the government balance sheet and countries have increasingly relied on systematic B
threaten government debt sustainability. This type of analysis of balance sheet data, thereby creating a
interaction among balance sheets could magnify the demand for strengthened data compilation and dis-
negative impact of a shock on real output levels. Policy semination systems. When balance sheet data are C
implications of the balance sheet analysis focus on not available in sufficient sectoral detail, the flow
policies to foster a buffering and hedging of private bal- of funds information (data on changes in assets and
ance sheets, including effective banking supervision to liabilities of different sectors) can be a useful alterna- D
ensure strong risk management by banks, sound public tive because the real and financial transactions that
debt and reserve management that effectively balances
costs and rollover risks, and promotion of domestic
underpin the flow of funds accounts are the means
by which balance sheet adjustments take place. Data
E
capital markets to ensure currency diversification. from sectoral balance sheets and from the flow of
Moreover, macroeconomic policy mix would need to funds suffer from a number of measurement difficul- F
take into account the constraints posed by the balance ties: (a) available information is typically based on
sheet mismatches such as the tradeoff between interest book (or transaction) values that may differ sharply
rate and exchange rate adjustments in the presence of from market values, (b) data on off-balance sheet G
maturity and exchange rate mismatches. exposures are not well captured, and (c) sharp portfo-
The financial sector’s balance sheets are key for the lio adjustments in response to shifts in relative asset
resilience of the economy. The relationship between prices and new information may render data that are
H
the financial sector balance sheet and the corporate based on historical accounting records to become
and household balance sheets as well as the impact of quickly outdated. I
29
Financial Sector Assessment: A Handbook
Table 2.6. Stylized Framework for Presenting Financial Interlinkages between Sectors in an Economy
1
Sector A's balance sheeta
Assets of Sector A Liabilities of Sector A
2
Financial claims on Financial obligations to
Sector B Sector B
3 by currency by currency
by maturity by maturity
Sector C Sector C
4 by currency by currency
by maturity by maturity
Sector D Sector D
5 by currency by currency
by maturity by maturity
6 Sector Eb
by currency
Sector Eb
by currency
by maturity by maturity
7 Net worth/netb
International investmentb
Note: A = government sector; B = banking system; C = non-bank financial sector; D = non-financial private; E = rest of world.
8 a. Similar sectoral balance sheets can be constructed for each sector in line with those in the System of National Accounts
(United Nations, Commission of the European Communities, International Monetary Fund, Organisation for Economic Co-opera-
tion and Development, and World Bank 1993); the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual (IMF 2000) also provides advice for
9 compilation of accounts with limited data. In practice, presenting information on currency exposures and maturity may be chal-
lenging in many countries.
b. When consolidating the sectoral balance sheets into the country’s balance sheet, the assets and liabilities held among resi-
dents net out, leaving the country’s external balance relative to the rest of the world (nonresidents), which is shown as sector
10 E. In the official balance-of-payments statistics, the difference between external financial assets and liabilities is the net interna-
tional investment position. For other sectors, the difference between financial assets and liabilities is net worth or capital position
of the sector.
11
12
A quality of the assets can help to analyze how balance sheet imbalances in one sector could
trigger changes in demand for financial assets of one or more sectors that could trigger
B financial instability. Recent work on the analytical uses and policy implications of balance
sheet data—The Balance Sheet Approach—and some issues in compilation of balance
sheet information are highlighted in box 2.1.
C
Illustrative sectoral balance sheets shown in table 2.6 highlight important information
on sectoral interlinkages that will remain hidden in the consolidated country balance
D sheets. If sectoral balance sheet data can be disaggregated, as shown in the table, to allow
the measurement of mismatches in the balance sheet by currency, maturity, and capital
E structure, then this type of information helps to analyze vulnerability to various shocks.
Some sources of sectoral balance sheet data are noted, as follows. Company finance
F statistics compiled by Bank of Korea (Financial Statements Analysis) provide balance
sheet and income statements for listed and unlisted firms at a detailed level of indus-
G trial classification. Annual data on financial assets and liabilities of households in New
Zealand are published in Reserve Bank of New Zealand Web site.19 Those kinds of data
H help to analyze the effects that macroeconomic shocks have on the soundness of firms and
households. The framework for compiling and presenting a government balance sheet is
I presented in the Government Finance Statistics Manual (IMF 2001), and this framework has
been applied in several countries (e.g., Ecuador, Uruguay). The issues in the compilation
30
Chapter 2: Indicators of Financial Structure, Development, and Soundness
of financial sector balance sheets are discussed in IMF’s Compilation Guide on Financial
Soundness Indicators (IMF 2004). The balance sheet analysis of financial sector is routinely
1
undertaken in all financial sector assessments as part of macroprudential analysis, which
is explained in chapter 3. 2
3
Notes
4
1. To get a more useful indication of financial size, central bank assets should be excluded
from this calculation. 5
2. Although this ratio is one of the most popular measures of financial depth, the M2
to GDP ratio could be misleading if currency constitutes a high proportion of broad 6
money.
3. Where available, this ratio should include non-bank forms of intermediation, for 7
example, issues of bonds and money market instruments.
4. For a definition of large and complex financial institutions, see Miles (2002). 8
5. It is advisable to supplement these measures with other indicators of competition. See
chapter 4 for a discussion of model-based indicators of competition.
9
6. For an example of the computation of the Herfindahl index, see chapter 15 of the
Compilation Guide on Financial Soundness Indicators (IMF 2004).
7. See chapter 8 of the Compilation Guide on Financial Soundness Indicators (IMF 2004).
10
8. Issued by the Committee on Payment Settlement Systems of the Bank For International
Settlements. See Chapter 11 for a detailed discussion of these core principles.
11
9. See Levine (1997) for more information.
10. See World Bank (2004). Chapter 4 has a brief discussion of access, including an analy- 12
sis of different approaches to measuring access.
11. See Honohan (2004) for a discussion of various sources of survey data and proposals A
for basic national access indicators.
12. See also chapter 3. B
13. For a survey, see Altman and Narayanan (1997). In the wake of the Asian crisis,
numerous authors have demonstrated the close links between poor corporate perfor- C
mance and banking system distress; for example, see Pomerleano (1998).
14. See Debelle (2004) for an overview of household debt and its effect on the macro- D
economy and implications for financial stability.
15. See Borio and McGuire (2004), and see Bank for International Settlements (2005) for E
an overview of housing price dynamics and implications for financial stability.
16. For more details of how to use FSIs to assess banking soundness, see IMF (2004, chap- F
ters 6, 8, and 14) and Evans and others (2000).
17. The particular peer groups chosen can be based on the structure of the banking system G
and the underlying source of weaknesses, so vulnerabilities are not masked but are
highlighted by the choice of peer group. H
18. See chapter 8 of IMF (2004) for an overview of statistics on securities markets. Two
works of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS; 1999, 2001) also provide a
I
detailed discussion of market liquidity, including its measurement and analysis.
31
Financial Sector Assessment: A Handbook
19. The Web site for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is available at http://www.rbnz.
1 govt.nz./statistics/monfin/index.html.
2
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